Open Toolbox for Modeling and Integration of Dynamic-recursive MGA in Energy System Models (OPTIMA)

Sponsored by:

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) as part of the German Government’s 8th Energy Research Program.

The Chair of Business Administration, specializing in Energy Economics, is part of the project Open Toolbox for Modeling and Integration of Dynamic-recursive MGA in Energy System Models (OPTIMA), which is funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy for a period of three years (2026 to 2029).

The transformation of the energy system requires long-term decisions to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty. Researchers frequently use energy system models to analyze possible development pathways, but these usually only suggest a single cost-optimized solution. In practice, there are often several options that are nearly equally good, but differ in terms of technology mix, infrastructure requirements, costs, resilience, or feasibility.

The OPTIMA research project is developing new methods to systematically highlight these alternatives and make them accessible to decision-makers. To this end, the “Modeling to Generate Alternatives” (MGA) approach is being combined with dynamic-recursive energy system models for the first time. This makes it possible to analyze alternative transformation pathways over several decades while considering path dependencies and potential lock-in effects.

Another focus is on reducing the complexity of large sets of alternatives. Data-driven and participatory methods are used to condense multiple model solutions into a few easily interpretable path archetypes. During this process, industry partners are actively brought into the process to help in developing criteria and constraints to ensure that the results can be applied to real-world planning and decision-making processes.

In addition to the FernUniversität in Hagen, the research collaboration also comprises Ruhr University Bochum, the Technical University of Berlin, and the Institute for Energy Economics at the University of Cologne. Our external partners include the Federal Network Agency and transmission system operators, energy and heating associations, as well as municipal and regional companies.